Discuss the upcoming movie to be released in 2020 and directed by Jason Reitman.
#4928424
Terminator Dark Fate was also a great movie. Shame it didn't do well.

But the reason is obvious - there have been a CRAP TON of bad Terminator movies in the last decade. T3 itself was pretty awful. Salvation was not good. Genesis had good parts but was meh overall...etc.

The buzz about Cameron and Hamilton was probably why it did any business at all. Shame.
#4928677
Something to chew on.

As of right now the first trailer for Dark Fate on the official paramount YouTube page as about 21Million views, and was released in May, about 7 months ago.

Charlie's Angels is at about 19Million and was released around the same time.

Jumanji: Next Level is at about 31Million and was released about 5 months ago.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife trailer was released 3 days ago and is already passed 11Million views.

There is serious public interest in the movie, and Sony has to be thrilled with that kind of early number.
RedSpecial liked this
#4928678
It's pretty much gaurenteed to do better than Answer the Call.

It will open at #1 for sure, but what kind of staying power will it have?

I know I'll be doing my part if it's good. I'll be going once a week until it's not showing anymore.
#4928685
It's pretty much gaurenteed to do better than Answer the Call.

It will open at #1 for sure, but what kind of staying power will it have?

I know I'll be doing my part if it's good. I'll be going once a week until it's not showing anymore.
This kind of movie is so difficult to predict. It would be much easier if GB16 wasn't part of the equation, but it is.

With Ghostbusters I'm never sure what people want from the movie. Ghostbusters is an odd property. Will people be disappointed if they don't laugh? If they don't laugh but are thrilled and have an emotional connection, will that be enough? Also, with reviews and rottentomatoes, this movie has a giant bullseye on it. The narrative a lot of pop culture writers have right now on GB2020 is: The bad guys won since this isn't a ATC sequel. Now we add the "Stranger Things" rip off that has been talked about and...it's a lot. A lot to overcome. General John Q movie goer doesn't care about most of that...but Rottentomatoes is becoming more and more important to the buying of tickets.

I'm going to predict that movie reviews will love the main story but complain the OG Ghostbusters are shoehorned into a plot that they don't think needs them. That's my prediction for how movie reviewers will come at this movie.

This summer is a bit of a crap shoot. There's no big Marvel movie. I think the biggest thing in Ghostbusters way is Wonder Woman 2 and Jungle Cruise.

Right now I'd say 60-65 million should be in reach. If the buzz and hype stay at the current levels. I still think that Sony is leaving money on the table by not having a number "3" in the title. People hear "Ghostbusters 3: Afterlife" and it just sounds like something not to be missed. That this is the Ghostbusters universe you remember. Marketing can get that across but the title is everything. It's such a mistake.

The world was been waiting for a 3rd Ghostbusters movie for 25 years or more. Remind them they are going to get it. I think a simple "3" to the title means an additional 10-20 million on opening weekend alone. Why? How many people didn't even click on the trailer because they assumed it was a sequel to GB16? A simple 3 fixes so much. It gets more attention, more attention is more eyeballs, more eyes balls is more butts in seats.

Sony, Jason, Ivan...Tom...if you are reading this. Do some research on this and add the "3". Please. It's the simplest most harmless thing and it will make a huge difference.
#4928686
As much as I hate playing the numbers game, the haters will use it against this movie, just like the last one.

The budget needs to be under 100 if it wants a chance. I'm assuming cause there will be ghosts in it, that it will not be released in China like the previous three films. China matters, if they don't crack that market, they better have a low budget.
droidguy1119 liked this
#4928689
As much as I hate playing the numbers game, the haters will use it against this movie, just like the last one.

The budget needs to be under 100 if it wants a chance. I'm assuming cause there will be ghosts in it, that it will not be released in China like the previous three films. China matters, if they don't crack that market, they better have a low budget.
Another thing against it money wise and I hate this , Disney owns everything, they pretty much are going to have space out multiple marvel films Star wars films new films and fox films throughout the year. That makes it harder for non-disney movies to profit.

My personal feelings aside for what we've seen , I would hope it does really well enough to prove the other studios can still be successful. Because the major success stories of other companies now is so rare.

And what's more fitting for Ghostbusters than to be the underdog that shocks everyone with how well it does.
#4928690
Gotta be honest, lets say HYPOTHETICALLY they make a horrible Ghostbusters movie (Crazy thought, huh?).... Well, if no one likes the AD for it to begin with, not as many people will show. And re-booting Ghostbusters WAS like Attempting to reboot Back to the Future.... "No. Just No." ...Projections? Easily at least a dollar more than ATC.
This has taken over 30 years of people Begging for it. ATC was a reboot, we wanted a Continuation. This would be it.
But lets get Mathematical for a moment! :D 1984 & 1989 Box office Grosses have been adjusted for inflation to 2016....
Imagevia Imgflip Meme Generator
Sources: Forbes, Fortune, Wikipedia
Note, I have not included the budgets, Marketing costs. Only bottom lines.
Adub794 liked this
#4928697
Gotta be honest, lets say HYPOTHETICALLY they make a horrible Ghostbusters movie (Crazy thought, huh?).... Well, if no one likes the AD for it to begin with, not as many people will show. And re-booting Ghostbusters WAS like Attempting to reboot Back to the Future.... "No. Just No." ...Projections? Easily at least a dollar more than ATC.
This has taken over 30 years of people Begging for it. ATC was a reboot, we wanted a Continuation. This would be it.
But lets get Mathematical for a moment! :D 1984 & 1989 Box office Grosses have been adjusted for inflation to 2016....
Imagevia Imgflip Meme Generator
Sources: Forbes, Fortune, Wikipedia
Note, I have not included the budgets, Marketing costs. Only bottom lines.
Can I ask a question?

Why does almost every post you make need a picture with text on it? Can't you make your point without using memes or whatever? It's a bit over the top, no?
back liked this
#4928719
Something to chew on.

As of right now the first trailer for Dark Fate on the official paramount YouTube page as about 21Million views, and was released in May, about 7 months ago.

Charlie's Angels is at about 19Million and was released around the same time.

Jumanji: Next Level is at about 31Million and was released about 5 months ago.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife trailer was released 3 days ago and is already passed 11Million views.

There is serious public interest in the movie, and Sony has to be thrilled with that kind of early number.
In all fairness, most of those views were me.
back liked this
#4928739
Gotta be honest, lets say HYPOTHETICALLY they make a horrible Ghostbusters movie (Crazy thought, huh?).... Well, if no one likes the AD for it to begin with, not as many people will show. And re-booting Ghostbusters WAS like Attempting to reboot Back to the Future.... "No. Just No." ...Projections? Easily at least a dollar more than ATC.
This has taken over 30 years of people Begging for it. ATC was a reboot, we wanted a Continuation. This would be it.
But lets get Mathematical for a moment! :D 1984 & 1989 Box office Grosses have been adjusted for inflation to 2016....
via Imgflip Meme Generator
Sources: Forbes, Fortune, Wikipedia
Note, I have not included the budgets, Marketing costs. Only bottom lines.
Comparing GB1 or GB2 to any current films just doesn't make sense. Since the 2000's China took over the market and that means simple action is the easier to market there. Comedies suffer due to language and culture barriers. A joke just doesn't translate well. There is a reason why hero movies are successful these days.

So either the budget is low or the film is gutted to pass China's rules. I am hoping for a low budget BTW.

Not exactly a perfect source, but Wisecrack did a decent video on the subject a few months ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_1YqcToBnI
back liked this
#4929009
I can't stress enough how much better it is for the box office to not put a 3 in the title. Do you think there's any aspect of any movie that a major studio like Sony hasn't market researched? You should operate under the impression that the current title is a result of said research.

The thing we have to remember is that we have been waiting for a sequel. To other people, this is a 35-year-old series and making that explicit connection says a few things. It tells new younger audiences they have to have pre-existing knowledge to understand the movie, which would be bad. It might convey a sweaty desperation to some, that because Ghostbusters (2016) was financially unsuccessful, Sony is pandering, which is not how they want it to come off. It looks generally old-fashioned, as the common usage of subtitles instead of numbers is increasingly trendy. It's less artistic: Afterlife has a number of elegant meanings all on its own. It's wisest to think of the audience as largely indifferent to the idea of a new movie, not impatient or excited or desperate.

Also, re: that graphic, any movie made now has to do 3x its budget before it's profitable. It used to be 2x but now it's closer to 3 because of back-end deals and advertising budgets that double the cost all by themselves (a $90m movie will often spend another $90m just on advertising). It doesn't even necessarily need to be much higher than 3x theatrically to be safe, because that means 100% of video sales and rentals are profit, and of course Ghostbusters is a huge merch magnet. Still, if this movie is a hit (which I still think is a big maybe -- I'm sure people will look for other culprits, but if it underperforms, remember my concern about how much the public cares about this compared to us), it's not likely to rake $100m in profit before video.

My feeling is that they've got a budget where something along 2016 performance lines would now be a thorough success. $220m worldwide would be profitable on a $70m budget.
robbritton, back, deadderek liked this
#4929129
Right now we have no idea what the budget is. I am also thinking around the $75 Million range. I also wonder what the advertising budget will be?

Looked at the trailer numbers and compared it to some other big movies for 2020

GB2020 Trailer
Dec 9, 2019
Views: 12.9 Million

Wonder Woman 1984
Dec 8, 2019
Views: 22 Million

007 No TIme To Die
Dec 4, 2019
Views UK: 10 Million
Views INT: 1 Million
Views: 12 Million

Black Widow
Dec 2, 2019
Views: 36 Million
SSJmole liked this
#4929203
Reposted from the discussion thread

I think it's going to do well, possibly well enough for a sequel. But I dont think it'll do great or amazing. I feel too much negativity towards the brand has been done by ATC (rightly or wrongly). As much as I would LOVE to see a full on GB resurgence like what we saw in the 80s, I just dont think it'll happen unfortunately. I think the film will be #1 in the box office opening week (hopefully longer but that depends on what other films come out). I also DO think it'll be profitable (isnt the budget for Afterlife significantly less than what ATC had)? So I do feel it will be finicailly successful, but I'm not sure it'll be a homerun, smash hit. I would love to be proven wrong, but these are my personal expectagions/Hope's.

If NOTHING else comes of it, at least we are finally getting a proper close to the OG Ghostbusters story is all I can ask for. So even if this film is IT, at least it feels like a proper close to the story (or it appears that way anyways).

What worries me though is that Sony is DYING for a franchise. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they really only have 3 Ghostbusters, MIB, and Spiderman. Spiderman is successful, but they have to share him in order for it to continue to be successful (so they are not making as much money off of him as they would like to). So basically they are stuck with GB and MIB. So what worries me is that if Afterlife isnt as successful as they are hoping for, they will keep rebooting the franchise. Or perhaps mix it with MIB (which sounds dreadful imo). One of the biggest take away's I've gotten from this quick turn around after ATC, is that Sony is determined to make money off of GB. So if Afterlife is moderately successful (but not as much as they were hoping for), it wouldn't shock me if the do a MIB/GB crossover within 5 years. Which would just kill the franchise imo.
deadderek liked this
#4929204
As much as I personally would have liked adding the "3" to the title, I agree it's probably the smarter move to NOT have it. I know I would have preferred it (my son would have as well, because he LOVES GB). But we are the exception not the rule. As far as my son goes, I'm worried he wont even like the film all that much (he's 4). But to him, Ghostbusters is Ray, Peter, Egon and Winston living in the firehouse battling ghosts. Which this movie isnt going to be that, so I am worried he wont like it all that much (hopefully I'm wrong). But if it reaches the general audiences, and maybe he grows up with other kids that DO like Ghostbusters now (thanks to Afterlife), that would be a positive.
#4932778
I'm just fingers crosses it comes out on time. I will say if Afterlife keeps it's slot and it hits right as cinemas re-open...it will do gangbusters.

No matter what though this WILL be opening at #1. Not even a shred of doubt on that.
RichardLess liked this
#4932884
What are you guys guessing now?
Ghostbusters Afterlife could benefit from this. Quite substantially. It all depends on when this Corona Virus stops.

People are itching to get out of their house and do something. Ghostbusters is familiar, funny and ALOT of big movies have been moved. It could be the right movie at the right time.

There are some people who think the movie going public will be too scared about germs to go back into a theatre. Poppycock. I don’t see that happening.

I think putting a “3” in the title could move the needle even more. Again, just as a simple and easy “this is not a sequel to the reboot” signal for people who don’t pay attention and you’d be surprised how many people there are who don’t. Without the reboot? I agree with others who say a 3 isn’t needed. But the reboot just complicates matters sooo much.
Story wise a “3” in the title may not be appropriate, and with where they want to take the franchise, but this is about getting in as many asses in seats as possible. A “3” just does sooo much heavy lifting. Sony is leaving money on the table by not doing that. Which...whatever. Sometimes studios truly do things for artistic reasons. We saw that with Sony not editing Once Upon a Time in Hollywood for a Chinese release(granted the cynic in me knows the real reason was more about pleasing Tarantino and hoping he’d make his next movie with Sony, rather than artistic integrity, but hey, it makes a better headline)
#4932890
As always, I disagree. I doubt a 3 does anything good to the box office, and in fact might be a deterrent. The whole point is pulling in a new audience. The new audience is always bigger than the existing audience because no movie ever made has the majority of the population seeing it. A 3 reinforces the idea that this is an inseparable part of two movies from 30+ years ago, which many of the people they're trying to attract haven't seen and/or might not like. We love it, but tastes change. I'm reminded of Disney actually cancelling Tron screenings when marketing Tron: Legacy because they realized 2011 viewers might actually find Tron so boring (I love Tron, FTR) that they'd be less likely to see the new one. There's also the possibility that a 3 will create expectations about how much the original cast is in it that the movie doesn't support.

Plus, the prospective viewer you're concerned about doesn't seem to exist. There's no reason for Sony not to assume anyone who is specifically invested in this being the third movie and is capable of seeing it either A) is definitely going to see it, or B) doesn't want to see it for some reason. Like, sure, maybe it's slightly confusing to return to the original universe so soon after a reboot, but can anyone actually picture a person living in the 21st century with a smartphone or the internet who would absolutely see this movie if they knew it was Ghostbusters 3, but who refuses to do any research? That's the only person for whom the 3 would move the needle. I have no doubt 100% of reboot haters are absolutely aware this is a sequel. And "no research" would have to include not watching the trailer, which explicitly lays out which timeline this is is using 1984 footage and dialogue, and never reading any articles on the internet about the movie, or talking to another fan.
#4932909
Those are all fair points and I have no specific research or anecdote that can convince you. It’s just a gut feeling I have. That’s all. After experiencing focus groups panels...people are ignorant. You want to see what people really are? Check out a focus group. This isn’t a joke but I had to go to therapy for awhile from what I saw in focus groups. I was a positive person, generally speaking, but for 16 straight months I worked purely in focus groups and...People are ignorant. It changed me as a person and how I saw the world.


I don’t think your point about a “3” possibly acting as a deterrent makes much sense. The “new” audience stayed away from the last film. Believe it or not but there is a sizeable audience that shows up outside a theatre and they don’t pick the movie beforehand. They are a minority for sure, but they track. This group of people tend to be older, sometimes seniors. And their money is as green as everyone else’s. They show up, look at a marquee, maybe ask an usher what’s good, and they pick. You might be laughing right now and saying “old people? Ghostbusters!?” but don’t forget, 1984 was 36 years ago. Pop in a “3” in who knows.



Nostalgia is the word of the day. Nostalgia is in. It’s hip, it’s wow, it’s now. It’s warm and fuzzy and familiar. What sounds more Nostalgic? Ghostbusters: Afterlife or Ghostbusters 3: Afterlife.

As has been mentioned...the reboot is the fly in the ointment. And it’s so soon and the reboot made such a splash in all the wrong ways, anyway Sony can separate GB2020 from GB16 should be considered. And I know that doesn’t sit well with those of you who are fans of GB16 but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.


But like I said. You may be right. It’s just a gut feeling of mine that Sony needs to take no chances. The only thing I can say I 100% don’t agree with is that the “3” could act as a deterrent. I will say this: if Sony doesn’t hold back the main cast from ads, signage, standees etc...then a “3” might not matter. But if they hold them back and don’t show them in action or have them in posters...not good.

I do love me some Tron tho.
deadderek liked this

Haha, that's the ultimate praise, I think! Thanks!

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